Polymarket and War
Israel Air Force Officer Charged With Leaking Iran Strike Date for Polymarket Bets, Court Reveals
An indictment alleges the air force officer leaked real-time details of the June 2025 Israeli strike on Iran to guide Polymarket bets, netting about $244,000 with an associate
An Israeli court on Thursday partially lifted the gag order on a reservist using classified information about the timing of Israel’s June 2025 strikes on Iran for Polymarket bets, revealing that the reservist is a major at the Israel Air Force.
The information was cleared for publication following a court petition by Haaretz.
According to the indictment, the air force officer and his colleague agreed that the former would inform the latter about the timing of the attack, and the colleague would then place the bets on the online prediction market. The two agreed to split the money, allegedly earning $244,000 in total.
The colleague allegedly placed several bets predicting an Israeli military strike against Iran before July, using the information he received from the officer. Each time he bet, he increased the amount based on the progress of the operation’s preparations.
On the eve of the operation, the indictment says, the officer was at an air force base in southern Israel and attended a briefing on the planned strike that night. Israel Air Force personnel instructed him to keep the information secret, and he signed a non-disclosure agreement.
He then passed the details to his colleague and urged him to increase their bets. He also highlighted that the site allowed bets on whether Israel would carry out a strike in Iran before Friday night.
According to the indictment, “for financial gain and despite the risk of revealing classified information,” the officer told his colleague the operation was set to happen before midnight U.S. time to maximize their winnings.
As Israeli planes took off for the strike, the indictment adds, the officer sent his colleague a message saying, “It’s happening now.” The colleague then told five friends that he had placed a bet based on information from the officer, who had been called up for reserve duty. He warned them not to share details of the planned Iran strike, “so we don’t go to jail.”
The two men reportedly won $162,000 from the bets and agreed to split the winnings once the officer returned from reserve duty.
During the operation, the two continued placing bets on various security-related questions on the website, including whether Israel would declare an end to the Iran operation by July, whether the United States would carry out military action in Iran by Saturday, and whether Israel would strike Iran on June 24.
The two reportedly kept profiting from these bets throughout the conflict. After the Iran war ended on June 26, the colleague transferred $74,680 in cryptocurrency to the main defendant.
In September, the two continued betting after the main accused participated in a classified Israeli Air Force operation in Yemen. The Air Force officer passed secret information to his colleague, who placed another bet, including on the question, “Will Israel strike in Yemen by September 19?” The two reportedly won about $5,500.
In January, the main accused again shared information with his colleague, saying there was a “flare-up” at a location redacted from the public indictment. The officer told his colleague to stay alert, as “he understood this indicated a planned Israeli strike in Iran during January.”
Following this, the colleague placed Polymarket bets on the question, “Will Israel strike Iran by the end of January?” and “Will Israel strike Iran by the end of March 2026?”
After a report by Kan public television revealed that an Israeli user had won large sums on the site through such bets, he began canceling the Iran-related wagers, changed his username, and, along with the main accused, started deleting their messages.
According to the indictment, “providing information for financial gain about future Israel Air Force operations for betting purposes on an open and exposed platform like Polymarket could have jeopardized the mission, endangered aircrews and caused serious harm to national security.”
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